Ruto leads Raila in new poll a week to elections

United Democratic Alliance Presidential candidate William Ruto has maintained his lead on
his closest rival Raila Odinga of the Azimio La Umoja-One Kenya just seven days to the August
9th General Election, new opinion poll results released today show.


The Intel Research Solutions (IRS) places Dr Ruto’s popularity at 53.1% per cent while that of
Mr Odinga is at 44.2 per cent.


The new results represent a change of fortunes for the front runners with Dr Ruto registering
a rise in popularity from 50.5 per cent, in a similar poll in July 21, 2022, to the current 53.1
per cent while that of the former Prime Minister rose to 44.2 per cent from 42.2 per cent
over the same period. This represents a rise of 2.6 and 2.0 percentage points respectively for
the two leading presidential contenders.


Roots Party Presidential candidate George Wajakoya is running third in the race with a
popularity rating of 1.4 per cent.


In between the July surveys was a presidential debate attended only by Dr Ruto although its
impact was not among the questions posed under this poll,” IRS Chief Executive Officer Karen
Mwangi said during the release of the poll results at Sarova Panafric Hotel.
Going by the results, Ms Mwangi said, Dr Ruto will win the Presidential seat in round one if
the elections were held today.


Ms Mwangi said the percentage number of undecided voters in the country stood at 2.7 per
cent, according to the survey findings, a figure she said was likely to reduce ahead of next
week’s General Election.


“We may still expect slight changes in terms of popularity of the main presidential contenders
over the next seven days depending on the campaign approaches adopted by each of the
political formations,” Mwangi said.
She added: “The last kick (of the presidential election campaigns) is key.”


The polls show that Dr Ruto still enjoys 25 per cent of the vote support in 43 counties, far
above the Constitutional minimum threshold of 24 counties. Odinga will garner 25 per cent
of the vote in 32 counties going by the survey.


According to the poll, Odinga’s is putting up a strong showing in Nyanza, Nairobi and Lower
Eastern regions. His highest popularity is in Siaya (89 per cent), Homa Bay (88.4 per cent),
Kisumu (87.7 per cent) and Migori (81.5 per cent).


Dr Ruto’s enjoys his highest popularity in Elgeyo/Marakwet County (91 per cent), Kericho
(89.4 per cent), Nandi (89.4 per cent) and Bomet (87 per cent).


Outside of the Nyanza region, Odinga’s highest support is in Busia (61.9 per cent), Turkana (55.8 per
cent), Machakos (55.8 per cent), Kajiado (55.8 per cent), Kilifi (55.6 per cent) and Taita Taveta (55.1
per cent).


On the other hand, outside of his Rift Valley base, Dr Ruto has the lion’s share of support in Tharaka
Nithi County (81.5 per cent), Embu (80.4 per cent), Nyeri (80.3 per cent), Nyandarua (78.2 per cent)
and Murang’a (75.3 per cent).


The poll was conducted between July 23rd to 28th, through electronic (database SMS Broadcasting).
Respondents were adults aged above 18 years and who said they were Registered voters. A national
random sample was drawn from a data base of registered voters across the country.


With the August 3 deadline imposed on pollsters to release survey findings on the General Election,
Ms Mwangi said today’s results were the last her firm was making public and expressed confidence
that the final election results next week will mirror her data. She, however, promised to conduct an
exit poll whose results would however not be released to the public.

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