Tomorrow, Ugandans head to the polls to pick their president and parliamentarians in races pitting mostly ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) candidates against the National Unity Platform (NUP) opposition party amid waning trust in the process itself.
Returning to the ballot, however, will be a very familiar figure who has loomed large over every one of the six elections the country has organised since 1996 when universal suffrage system of voting came into place.
President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni has won every election and walks into the seventh tipped as a clear favourite albeit with a strong challenge from Robert Kyagulanyi alias Bobi Wine in a rematch race after their first head-to-head contest in 2021.
On the 2026 campaign trail, President Museveni barely made the many lofty promises typical of politicians seeking a mandate from an expectant electorate. Instead, his campaign has run on a message of “protecting the gains” he claims were made in the 40 years of his rule.
So confident is the president of a win that he jokingly urged his main challenger Bobi Wine to abandon his ambitions saying Ugandans “love me more than mangoes”.
“I really wonder sometimes when I see Bobi Wine campaigning. He knows very well that he cannot defeat me, but he keeps running up and down every time thinking Ugandans will vote for him,” said Museveni.
Rise to power
The 81-year-old rose to power in 1986 bringing back on track a nation that had for long failed to realise its potential owing to years of turmoil marked by frequent regime changes that brought to power polarising figures including some described as dictators like Iddi Amin.
A rebel leader at the time, Museveni overthrew the military regime of General Tito Okello after a war waged from the bush starting from the time of President Milton Obote.
Decades later, some Ugandans still feel indebted to him for his role in the National Resistance Movement (NRM) that employed pressure tactics including guerilla warfare on its path to power returning stability to a people once used to chaos.
“The first Museveni government picked Uganda out of the ditch and the country began to flourish,” said former cabinet minister Miria Matembe in a recent DW interview.
Matembe, who left government in 2002 after a fallout with Museveni, turned into one of its critics and has been skeptical about the credibility of the Thursday vote despite assurances of a free and fair exercise from the Electoral Commission of Uganda chairperson Justice Simon Byabakama.
“When our president loved power more than the vision that he had come with, then things went astray. He can never lose, he’ll win and come back,” she said.
The two disagreed on the President’s push to abolish term limits. This passed through parliament in 2005.
Lately, Museveni’s legacy has come under sharp scrutiny over a worrying record in areas like human and civil rights, democracy, rule of law, and handling of the economy.
Unsettled veteran
Once assured of his popularity, Museveni has approached recent elections with an iron fist, deploying the police and military against opponents leading to outcry over intimidation.
In the just concluded campaigns, for instance, the National Unity Platform (NUP) opposition party has reported presence of uniformed security agents at its rallies with its presidential candidate Robert Kyagulanyia alias Bobi Wine, 43, turning up in combat attire.
Kizza Besigye who ran against Museveni four times in the past will follow the events from prison following his arrest more than a year ago. He faces treason charges that rights groups and international observers say are politically motivated.
On Tuesday, the Uganda Communication Commission directed mobile networks to suspend internet services throughout the election period, throwing the whole country into an information blackout, seemingly borrowing a leaf from Tanzania’s October 29, 2025 internet shutdown.
In a statement, UCC said it was protecting against election related misinformation, disinformation, and incitement to violence even as critics decried gagging and economic losses the move carried.
Parliament, majority controlled by Museveni’s NRM, passed the Computer Misuse Act in 2022 that has backed crackdowns on dissent and limited free speech and online activities that opposition used to organise.
2026, and a possible succession
Candidates pegged the election on the economy noting the high youth unemployment, rising cost of living, and corruption.
Talks of a presidential succession in Uganda have grown louder in recent days with fears that Museveni was grooming his son General Muhoozi Kainerugaba to take over.
In 2023, Muhoozi stirred a storm declaring a 2026 presidential run in one of now common controversial tweets that often stoke anger at home and targets abroad.
However, in a media interview last year, Museveni cleared the air about his rumoured exit after viral online reports that 2026 would be his last stab at the presidency.
“As long as Ugandans continue to vote for me, I will continue to run because they trust me. I haven’t said this is the last time I am vying, the videos circulating online are edited,” he clarified.
In 2021 Museveni won with 55 per cent of the vote against Bobi Wine’s 35 per cent from a 58 per cent voter turnout that has been dropping over the years. The US rejected the outcome.
Bobi Wine has largely been sustained by the disgruntled youth, many born into Museveni’s rule, demanding change. Most of them see him as a brave and fearless leader standing up to the government despite repeated persecution in reaction to his combative kind of politics.
Campaigns closed on Tuesday, January 13, in line with election guidelines.
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