In the final stretch before Thursday’s by-elections, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has released a rapid series of letters—more than five in just a few days—accusing both the IEBC and the Inspector General of Police of bias, misconduct, or complicity. He has repeatedly warned that the elections will be rigged, even before ballots are cast. Taken together, these actions paint the picture of a man under immense political pressure.

Gachagua’s party, the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP), is facing a difficult contest in several by-election battlegrounds. Internal observers and analysts suggest that the party’s ground mobilisation has been weaker than expected. In such a situation, the sudden surge of alarming statements appears less like strategic communication and more like a pre-emptive attempt to shape a narrative of victimhood ahead of an unfavourable outcome.

The tone of the letters tells its own story. Instead of projecting confidence, they read like the work of a politician bracing for defeat. His public posture, his language, and the urgency in his messaging all suggest a leader trying to create a crisis where none has been officially confirmed. It is a classic political move: when the ground game falters, shift the spotlight from performance to controversy.

Gachagua has also leaned heavily into emotionally charged claims—suggesting coordinated violence, state-sponsored intimidation, and systemic interference. For many Kenyans, words like “rigging” carry painful memories of past political instability. His statements tap into that national sensitivity, but risk heightening tensions at a moment when calm and clarity are crucial.

What stands out most is not the number of letters, but their tone: defensive, alarmed, and increasingly accusatory. These are not the communications of a politician convinced of victory. They are the communications of someone trying to manage expectations before results arrive.

Whether his fears are genuine or tactical, one thing seems clear: Gachagua’s escalating warnings reflect political strain. As by-election day approaches, his strategy appears less about winning votes and more about shaping the story of an election he may already believe is slipping out of his grasp.