By Shadrack Nyakoe
President William Ruto’s expected appearance at the Orange Democratic Movement’s (ODM) 20th anniversary celebrations in Mombasa has stirred speculation of a possible political realignment ahead of the 2027 General Election.
The Head of State, once a key pillar of the ODM Pentagon during Raila Odinga’s heyday, is set to join party loyalists and dignitaries this weekend in what could mark the most symbolic reunion in Kenya’s recent political history.
The celebrations the first major ODM gathering since Raila’s passing on October 15 are being framed as both a tribute to the party’s founding leader and a reflection on its two-decade journey in shaping Kenya’s politics.
According to acting party leader and Siaya Senator Oburu Odinga, Ruto’s invitation was extended in line with Raila’s own wishes. ODM Executive Director Oduor Ong’wen added that the event would bring together all founding members to honour the man who inspired Kenya’s longest-standing opposition movement.
Former Cabinet Secretary Najib Balala has confirmed attendance, while other founding figures including Musalia Mudavadi, Charity Ngilu, and former President Uhuru Kenyatta have yet to publicly respond.
The anniversary will run from Thursday through Sunday, featuring a series of thematic sessions, youth and women summits, and a commemorative gathering at Mama Ngina Waterfront to celebrate Raila’s legacy. The festivities will culminate in a multi-faith thanksgiving service on Sunday.
Political watchers say Ruto’s decision to honour the invite goes beyond nostalgia. To them, it signals a calculated attempt to tap into the political vacuum left by Raila a constituency that has shaped national elections for more than two decades.
“President Ruto is facing the toughest test of his political career,” noted political analyst Samuel Owida. “He’s reaching out to ODM not out of affection, but out of necessity. His numbers are shrinking, and he knows the United Opposition presents a real threat to his re-election bid.”
Owida argues that Ruto, who will be seeking a second term in 2027, may be preparing to reinvent his political identity even if that means aligning with a party once viewed as his fiercest rival.
“There’s every possibility he could embrace the ODM ticket if that’s the only viable path to staying in power,” he added.
For lawyer and Safina-Kenya Party official Wills Otieno, Ruto’s presence at the ODM anniversary is as much about optics as it is about strategy.
“Ruto is carefully positioning himself to inherit Raila’s political base,” Otieno said. “He understands that without it, his re-election bid could falter yet even with it, he still faces an uphill task. The Orange movement remains emotionally tied to Raila’s memory.”
Otieno further suggested that Ruto’s current political vehicle, the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), has lost the populist edge that defined his 2022 campaign. “ODM could easily become his new platform one with stronger emotional ties and national reach.”
Still, not everyone sees the move as opportunistic. High Court advocate and political commentator Ambrose Weda believes the president’s gesture could be interpreted as an effort to unify the country during a period of political transition.
“Ruto’s presence shows he is focused on national cohesion and continuity,” Weda said. “Whether ODM survives or fades will depend on how its current leaders handle this moment. It’s a test of unity not just for the party, but for the country.”
The ODM anniversary will open on Thursday with a special sitting of the National Governing Council (NGC). On Friday, the party will hold a breakfast for the ODM Disability League, followed by youth and women summits. A youth concert is planned for the evening.
Saturday’s highlight the celebration in honour of Raila Odinga will feature tributes from local and international guests, ending with a Founders’ Dinner at Sarova Whitesands Beach Resort.
The curtain will fall on Sunday with an interfaith thanksgiving service, paying homage to Raila’s enduring vision of democracy, justice, and national unity.
As the Orange party prepares to mark two decades of political turbulence and triumph, Ruto’s attendance adds a new layer of intrigue a reminder that in Kenyan politics, alliances are rarely permanent, and rivalries never absolute.
