By Kimberly Kalusi
Tanzanians went to the polls on Wednesday in a vote that many believe is little more than a formality, with President Samia Suluhu Hassan expected to secure an overwhelming victory in her first real electoral test since taking office in 2021.
What was once billed as a contest to mark Tanzania’s democratic renewal has instead become a reflection of its diminished political freedoms, as opposition candidates were disqualified, media freedoms curtailed, and critics silenced in the lead-up to the vote.
For many observers, this year’s election feels less like a competition and more like a coronation — one that cements President Samia’s hold on power while casting a shadow over the future of multiparty democracy in one of East Africa’s most influential nations.
From Accidental President to Political Powerhouse
When John Magufuli, the late Tanzanian president, died suddenly in March 2021, few imagined that his soft-spoken deputy, Samia Suluhu Hassan, would emerge as one of the most dominant leaders in the region.
She was hailed as a symbol of progress — Tanzania’s first female president, and one of only a handful of women ever to lead a nation in Africa. Her early days in office were marked by a wave of optimism: she freed detained opposition figures, reopened banned media houses, and signaled a desire to rebuild ties with the international community that had frayed under Magufuli’s isolationist and authoritarian rule.
Samia’s “Four Rs” agenda — reconciliation, resilience, reform, and rebuilding — captured imaginations at home and abroad. Donor funding resumed, relations with the IMF and World Bank were restored, and foreign investors began to return to Tanzania.
Yet, beneath the surface of reform, critics say, power was quietly consolidating in ways that now mirror — and in some cases exceed — the very tactics she once appeared to reject.
Reform Fatigue and Rising Repression
Over the past two years, reports of abductions, arbitrary arrests, and enforced disappearances of opposition figures and journalists have multiplied. Rights groups accuse the government of orchestrating a campaign of intimidation to silence dissent.
“Samia began as a unifying figure, but her administration has increasingly adopted coercive tools that were once associated with the Magufuli era,” said Asha Mdee, a political analyst at the University of Dar es Salaam.
According to Freedom House, Tanzania’s democratic score has plummeted — downgraded from “partly free” to “not free” — citing the repression of opposition parties, restrictions on assembly, and a climate of fear that discourages open political discourse.
Media Muzzled and Critics Silenced
Journalists and civil society groups say that the space for independent reporting has sharply narrowed. Several media outlets have been suspended or warned against publishing “false or inflammatory content,” particularly coverage that questions the government’s human rights record or election fairness.
In July, authorities revoked the accreditation of an investigative journalist who reported on alleged extrajudicial killings in the southern regions. Foreign correspondents have faced visa delays and bureaucratic hurdles, while domestic reporters operate under strict self-censorship.
The Tanzania Communications Regulatory Authority (TCRA) has been accused of selectively enforcing laws to stifle critical voices online, including opposition activists and independent bloggers.
“This is a return to the politics of fear,” said a veteran editor who requested anonymity for safety reasons. “You can praise the president all day, but the moment you question policy or human rights, you risk being silenced.”
The Opposition on the Edge
The country’s main opposition party, Chadema, has accused the government of orchestrating a campaign to “cripple” its operations. Several of its leaders, including Freeman Mbowe, have faced repeated arrests, while public rallies have been heavily restricted.
Dozens of candidates from opposition parties were disqualified ahead of the vote on technical grounds, a move critics say was calculated to guarantee a CCM landslide.
Even as the government denies wrongdoing, international observers and rights monitors have voiced concern that Tanzania’s elections no longer meet the threshold of competitiveness.
A Nation at a Crossroads
Despite mounting criticism, many Tanzanians — weary of political unrest and economic uncertainty — view Samia as a stabilizing force. Her government has invested heavily in infrastructure, tourism recovery, and energy projects, portraying her as the architect of Tanzania’s next growth chapter.
“People see her as the mother of the nation, someone who brought calm after Magufuli’s storm,” said political commentator Mohammed Issa. “But the question now is: at what cost to freedom?”
As ballot boxes close, few expect surprises. The ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party, in power since independence, is almost certain to maintain its dominance. But for many Tanzanians, the real test lies beyond the results — in whether President Samia will restore the democratic openness she once promised, or continue down a path of control cloaked in stability.
