The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) risks losing ground in its traditional strongholds as rival political parties exploit internal divisions to court grassroots supporters, a political analyst has warned.
Alenga Torosterdt, a policy and governance analyst, said parties built around dominant founders often struggle to survive once that figure exits the political stage.
“People never prepare for the eventuality of losing the founder of a vision, so when it happens, they often struggle to put things back together,” said Torosterdt during an interview on Spice FM on Wednesday, January 7.
Wednesday’s interview coincided with what would have been Raila Odinga’s 81st birthday.
Seven ODM legislators said on January 5 that rival parties were moving aggressively to occupy spaces the party once dominated, warning that the losses could accelerate unless unity is restored.
The Members of Parliament, including Otiende Amollo (Rarieda) and Millie Odhiambo (Suba North), said the encroachment could speed up if internal wrangles continue.
In Gusii region, United Progressive Alliance (UPA) has gained traction among voters, while Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K) has expanded its presence in Western Kenya.
Movement for Growth and Democracy (MDG), led by Ugenya MP David Ochieng, is also making inroads in ODM strongholds.
Torosterdt said ODM’s two-decade dominance stemmed from Raila’s personal bond with grassroots voters rather than formal party structures.
“Every political formation exists because of its relevance, and often, Raila drew this relevance directly from the people themselves,” explained Torosterdt.
“He strategically positioned himself as the last person to question or challenge what was happening in the lives of the common man, and that is what sustained ODM over the years,” he added.
Three months after Raila’s death in October 2025, that connection now faces a test.
National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohamed and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga lead the faction pushing for a formal coalition with President William Ruto’s 2027 re-election bid, while Secretary General Edwin Sifuna opposes any alliance with the president.
The ideological divide deepened into personal attacks when Sifuna accused Junet of mismanaging campaign funds from former President Uhuru Kenyatta during the 2022 General Election, claiming agents were left unpaid and cost ODM victory.
Junet has since denied the allegations, saying Uhuru’s brother Muhoho Kenyatta and aide Patrick Mburu controlled the funds from a restricted office in Westlands that even Raila could not freely access.
The dispute has escalated to calls for Sifuna’s expulsion, though intervention by Raila’s widow Ida Odinga and party trustees temporarily eased tensions.
A December 2025 poll by TIFA Research showed only 19 per cent of ODM supporters want the party to back Ruto in 2027, revealing a gap between party leadership and grassroots sentiment.
The seven MPs described ODM’s current state as “self-cannibalisation” in their January 5 statement.
“It is testament to how much we miss the wisdom and iconic leadership of the departed Rt Hon Raila Odinga that divisive rhetoric has taken over our politics, without restraint,” noted Amollo.
ODM party leader Oburu Oginga, Raila’s elder brother, declared on December 31 that he would automatically be the party’s presidential candidate if ODM fields an independent candidate in 2027.
“I want to make it absolutely clear that our constitution already has a presidential candidate for our party. And that presidential candidate is clearly stated in the constitution of our party, and it is the party leader,” noted Oburu.
His declaration triggered fresh debate. Saboti MP Caleb Amisi questioned who would vote for Oburu if the party continues losing members with differing views.
Smaller parties that once operated on the margins of ODM now test whether the movement can hold its ground without the figure who shaped it for two decades.
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