Luo Nyanza Political Novices Can’t Replace Their Kingpin, Raila Odinga

By Fred Ogolla

• Just as priests can’t inherit an Episcopate

The 2022 General Election was such an anti-climax for all Raila Odinga’s supporters and fans and most detrimental to the Luo Nyanza political leadership.

Since it was so obvious to his supporters (and even to most of his opponents) that Raila would win clean and rule till 2032, there was no thought of a succession plan.

And it is this unexpected loss that majorly informs the artificial disquiet and salivation for his well earned kingpin-ship.  

My crystal ball tells me that come 2027, even if there are so many people scouting to take the mantle, no one will match Raila Odinga, the enigma of Kenyan politics.

In fact, if Raila doesn’t endorse someone outside the Lake Region, he still stands a better chance than any other possible candidate from Ramogi origin to contest against President William Ruto.

If these opportunists don’t do anything nationally significant within the next five years, then only Raila’s words and actions, and not of any other person, will give Ruto sleepless nights. 

Like it or not, Raila is like an Archbishop, whose Episcopal jurisdiction cannot be inherited by priests but only by another bishop.

Unfortunately, at this point of time Luo Nyanza has no bishop to be upgraded to an Archbishop; it only has priests.

And so, a suitable bishop from ‘outside’ may take over.

We saw Bishop John Njue moved from Nyeri to be the Archbishop of Nairobi, Archbishop Philip Anyolo moved to Nairobi Archdiocese having moved earlier from Homabay to replace Archbishop Okoth in Kisumu, and now Bishop Muhatia from Machakos to the Archdiocese of Kisumu.

This could be the fate of Luo Nyanza political leadership whereby Kalonzo, Martha Karua or Ali Hassan Joho may move from outside to inherit the Luo Nyanza voting block.

It is the same fate that befell Mt. Kenya, where there was no one ripe to be upgraded to replace Uhuru in the 2022 elections. And so Ruto and Raila battled to inherit it.

Though Ruto succeeded, it is going to be hard to wish away Rigathi Gachagua as he is now like a bishop waiting to be upgraded to an Archbishop.

There is no ‘bishop’ as yet in Luo Nyanza for a number of reasons. Firstly, rather than working hard to emerge and endear oneself to the people as a leader, a number are trying to claim kingpinship without sweat.

Kidero, Babu Owino, Miguna Miguna, Dalmas Otieno and others whose names are often surfaced have not demonstrated the leadership that can match that of Raila Odinga.

Most of them owe their political success to Raila and some have even gone as far as betraying Raila so as to get to where they are.

When it was time to pass the baton, Raila had not yet reached the category of bishop, and so Jaramogi passed the mantle to Kijana Wamalwa.

Rather than claim the position on the strength of his father’s influence, Raila instead resigned from Ford Kenya, thus losing his Langata MP seat,  only to reclaim it back through his own party LDP – a risk that Babu Owino and his ilk cannot take.

Kidero, on the other hand, lost to Gladys Wanga in Homabay trying to prove a point against Raila. 

In fact, outside these non-starters, there are more prominent personalities with national appeal such as Anyang Nyongo and James Orengo, the former who made a great contribution when he was Minister for Planning and Health.

Though Orengo, when he was the Minister of Lands, wasn’t among the highest performers at the level of John Michuki who sanitized the matatu industry, he nevertheless has a national appeal.

Another reason for leadership vaccum in Luo Nyanza is the fact that Raila has never been just a Luo Nyanza leader but a national leader – an attribute that most of those wanting to inherit him have not even started working on.

In 2007, 2013, 2017 and 2022 elections Raila consecutively garnered over five million votes outside Nyanza. Who among those names can get a thousand votes outside Nyanza?

Lastly, the circumstances through which Raila emerged as the leader were quite different.

A new Luo Nyanza leder cannot be his replica, just as is also true with football: Maradona never tried to be Pele, Ronaldo never tried to be Maradona.

It was the incredible talent of Messi that gave Ronaldo a run for his talent. None had to tell the other to exit the football world so that they would shine.

Likewise, one has to emerge as a leader and be embraced as such if he or she is to take over from Raila.

Truth be told, it is likely that the likes of Joho, Kalonzo, Ledama Ole Kina and Martha Karua have better chances of taking over from Raila Odinga than even Raila’s family and the larger Luo Nyanza leaders.

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